President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash this week happened during a challenging period for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Raisi, a key figure in the political elite, had significant influence over Iran's domestic policies. He also played a central role in Iran's recent efforts to improve relations with its regional rivals.
With his substantial impact, his absence raises questions about the country's domestic affairs and its regional relations. Raisi led a conservative government and had a close relationship with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Their lack of conflict contrasted with previous administrations, which often had tensions with the leader. Raisi was a top contender to succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei, who has been the Supreme Leader for 35 years.
His broad influence in Iran's conservative circles made him a significant figure in shaping the country's leadership future. However, Raisi's untimely death, just a year before the end of his second term, occurred amid various challenges at domestic, regional, and international levels. Iran faces severe US sanctions over its nuclear program, leading to economic hardship and social impact.
Moreover, internal protests, including significant demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini and economic grievances, have added to the country's challenges. The recent low voter turnout in parliamentary elections and security concerns from the Israel conflict further complicate the situation. Despite these obstacles, Iran's power transition is expected to maintain stability due to the interconnected political circles under the Supreme Leader's guidance.
Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is serving as acting president, with a conservative successor likely to continue the regime's policies smoothly. While the new leader may come from the conservative inner circle, a historical pattern suggests a balance between conservatives and reformists in Iranian politics.
This balance enhances the regime's public legitimacy and political stability. In terms of foreign relations, Raisi shifted Iran's focus towards the Middle East, unlike his predecessor who emphasized ties with European and Western nations. Under Raisi, Iran engaged in ground breaking talks with Saudi Arabia in Iraq, leading to normalized relations in early 2023.
The negotiations facilitated stability in the region, including the end of the Yemeni civil war and improved relations between Arab countries and Syria. Iran's engagements with Jordan and Egypt, supported by Iraq, aimed to reduce sectarian conflicts and promote cooperation.
Additionally, Iran strengthened ties with China and Russia during Raisi's presidency, aligned with the Supreme Leader's pivot towards the East. The country continued negotiations with Western powers on its nuclear program, with continuity expected under a new president. The appointment of Ali Bagheri Kani as acting foreign minister reinforces Iran's established foreign policy direction and signals a sustained shift towards closer regional relationships, moving away from isolation.